Kalshi raises the probability of Pete Hegseth impeachment to 86%

Kalshi's prediction markets raised the probability that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will be impeached after Representative Thomas Massie moved to force a House vote on 9 November 2026. Kalshi now places the probability of impeachment before the end of the year at 86% and 77% before 21 November 2026.

Market movements and key figures

Kalshi publishes several probabilities tied to Hegseth's tenure and possible impeachment. The market percentages are:

• Impeachment of Hegseth before 21 November 2026: 77%

• Impeachment of Hegseth before the end of 2026: 86%

• Impeachment of Hegseth before 1 April 2027: 87%

Kalshi's market on Hegseth exiting office shows different figures: 42% probability of leaving before the end of 2026, 64% before 1 February 2027 and 74% before 1 April 2027.

The Thomas Massie initiative

Representative Thomas Massie reintroduced articles of impeachment against Hegseth on 9 November 2026. ABC News reported that Massie filed the privileged resolution on the House floor that afternoon.

The Associated Press recorded that Massie attempted to introduce articles of impeachment in September 2026, but then-House Speaker Mike Johnson recessed the session and sent lawmakers home until after the midterms, delaying a vote. Johnson said the decision to call a recess was unrelated to Massie's measure.

Public and partisan reactions

Hegseth responded that he is not “worried” about the impeachment move and announced a press conference the next day at the Pentagon: “We’re going to do a press conference tomorrow morning at the Pentagon on that very topic,” Hegseth told reporters. “So I’ll save my remarks there. I hope you all come loaded for bear with your questions.”

Axios reported that some Republican leaders are preparing for enough defections within the party for the measure to succeed when it reaches a vote. Axios added that Republicans who lost on Tuesday may be more willing to back impeachment, noting that Hegseth's support has eroded since the start of the war in Iran.

Representative Don Bacon told Fox News that Hegseth does not have “a lot of love” and told Axios he has not yet decided how he will vote on the measure.

Political context and closing

Kalshi's results reflect market expectations after Massie's reintroduction of articles and the post-midterm political landscape that projects Democratic control of the House and Senate in 2027. The contracts and probabilities cited above come from Kalshi's prediction markets and update in real time. For related coverage, see our section of [news](/news).