Kalshi Traders Push Hegseth Impeachment Odds to 86% by Year-End
Markets price an 86% chance of impeachment and 42% chance of departure by year-end.
Key Takeaways
- Kalshi markets assign an 86% probability that Pete Hegseth will be impeached before the end of 2026.
- Traders put a 42% chance Hegseth leaves office by 31 December 2026 and a 74% chance by 1 April 2027.
- Representative Thomas Massie reintroduced articles of impeachment on Nov. 9, 2026, bringing a privileged resolution to the House floor.
- ABC News reported the resolution needs a simple majority and could pass if a small number of Republicans defect.
Kalshi traders have raised the probability that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will be impeached after Representative Thomas Massie reintroduced articles of impeachment on Nov. 9, 2026. Kalshi's market now assigns an 86% chance Hegseth is impeached before the end of the year and a 42% chance he leaves office by year-end. The exchange is pricing faster impeachment than removal from office.
Market moves and probabilities
Kalshi's event contracts show the impeachment probabilities as:
77% chance of impeachment before Nov. 21, 2026
86% chance of impeachment before the end of 2026
87% chance of impeachment before 1 April 2027
The platform's Hegseth departure market places his odds of leaving office at 42% by 31 December 2026, 64% before 1 February 2027 and 74% before 1 April 2027. Traders thus assign lower probabilities to Hegseth actually leaving office than to the House voting to impeach him.
Kalshi markets have adjusted rapidly since Massie's floor action; coverage of those contract moves is available on our news feed.
Political developments driving the market
Representative Thomas Massie reintroduced articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth on Nov. 9, 2026, bringing a privileged resolution to the House floor that same afternoon, ABC News reported. ABC News noted:
"Massie needs a simple majority for the impeachment resolution to succeed in the House, meaning that just three Republicans need to vote with all Democrats to prevail." — ABC News
The Associated Press reported Massie had tried to bring articles of impeachment against Hegseth in September 2026. Speaker Mike Johnson closed the House early and sent lawmakers home until after the midterm elections, delaying a vote on the measure; Johnson denied that his decision to call a recess had anything to do with Massie’s measure.
Some Republican leaders are preparing for defections when the resolution comes to a vote, Axios reported. Axios added that Republicans defeated in the midterms could be more willing to back impeachment because Hegseth's support has eroded since the start of the Iran war. Representative Don Bacon told Fox News that Hegseth does not have "a lot of love," and told Axios he has not decided how he will vote. An unidentified GOP lawmaker told reporters, "Iran, Iran, Iran…We should have never done the war before the midterms."
Hegseth responded to the move by saying he is "not worried" about the impeachment measure and announced a Pentagon press conference. He told reporters, "We’re going to do a press conference tomorrow morning at the Pentagon on that very topic. So I’ll save my remarks there. I hope you all come loaded for bear with your questions."
Regulatory and platform context
Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission; information on regulatory status appears on Kalshi's site and in filings. Market prices on Kalshi reflect trader expectations about congressional action and do not constitute legal or financial advice. For reporting on regulatory oversight, see regulation.
The opinions in this article are the author's. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions; trading carries significant risk and is for persons 18+ only.
Frequently Asked Questions
What impeachment odds did Kalshi assign for Pete Hegseth by year-end 2026?
Kalshi traders assigned an 86% probability that Pete Hegseth would be impeached before the end of 2026. The exchange's impeachment contract prices rose after Representative Thomas Massie reintroduced articles of impeachment on Nov. 9, 2026.
How do markets compare impeachment odds to the chance Hegseth leaves office?
Markets place a lower probability on Hegseth leaving office than on impeachment: Kalshi shows a 42% chance he leaves by 31 December 2026, versus an 86% chance of impeachment in the same period. Departure odds rise to 64% before 1 February 2027 and 74% before 1 April 2027.
What action did Representative Thomas Massie take and when?
Representative Thomas Massie reintroduced articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth on Nov. 9, 2026, and introduced the privileged resolution on the House floor that afternoon, according to ABC News.
Could the impeachment resolution pass the House?
The resolution could pass with a simple majority, ABC News reported, meaning a few Republican defections combined with all Democratic votes would be sufficient. Axios reported some Republican leaders are bracing for enough GOP defections when the measure comes to a vote.
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About the author
Tessa Coleman
Betting Markets Correspondent
Tessa Coleman covers betting products and markets — sportsbook launches, odds and trading technology, and the fast-growing prediction-market space from regulated exchanges to event contracts. The stories lead with the product or the ruling, name the operators and platforms precisely, and translate trading jargon into what bettors can actually do. When a book reworks its pricing or a prediction market wins a license fight, Tessa Coleman explains the mechanics and the stakes.
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