NCPG warns about risks in prediction markets and calls for preventive actions

The National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG) warns that prediction markets, although classified differently by law, expose users to risks comparable to those of traditional gambling. According to the official statement from Derek Longmeier, Chairman of the Board of NCPG, the organization is calling for immediate interventions to reduce harm, emphasizing the rapid popularization of these products and their reach to millions of Americans, including young populations.

Prediction Markets: Growth and Public Perception

The expansion of prediction markets prompted NCPG to publicly express its stance, reiterating that, although the legality of these markets is debated, the activity functionally represents a form of gambling. A recent Harris Poll survey commissioned by NCPG supports this view: 85% of Americans agree that these platforms can generate addictive or unhealthy behaviors, and 84% believe they should be subject to the same protections governing betting. The current scope of the phenomenon, both in volume and speed, surpasses historical precedents.

NCPG and Its Financial Trader Health and Safety Initiative

The organization has established, among its priority lines, the Financial Trader Health and Safety Initiative. Launched earlier this year, this initiative explicitly aims to address the emerging risks linked to prediction platforms and comparable products. For over five decades, NCPG has been dedicated to supporting individuals affected by gambling-related harm, focusing more on minimizing damage than on controversies over legal terms.

“We are not neutral on the need to prevent and reduce gambling-related harm wherever it occurs. The harm is real, and we cannot wait to act,” stated Derek Longmeier, Chair of the NCPG Board.

Tangible Risks and Organizational Response

Recent reports show that users of prediction markets already experience tangible financial, emotional, and relational consequences. NCPG emphasizes that its mission does not depend on regulatory interpretations but on the very presence of risk. They acknowledge the pressure caused by the growth of these platforms, especially among young people, and admit that consumer protection infrastructure is not keeping pace with technological launches.

The organization primarily funds itself through donations— including from gambling operators— but stresses that it does not allow funding to condition its research, interventions, or public statements. These partnerships enable action where harm is detected since there is no federal funding for these initiatives.

Minimum Protection Proposals for Prediction Markets

NCPG calls on regulators, operators, sports leagues, prediction platforms, financial institutions, and community associations to promote concrete measures for user protection. They consider the following elements minimum requirements for platforms that offer betting or similar products:

• Responsible gambling tools
• Self-exclusion options
• Age verification on all registrations
• Clear risk disclosures
• Direct access to help and assistance services

According to NCPG, the need to implement these standards intensifies given the speed with which prediction markets reach young segments, who present a particular vulnerability to problematic behaviors.

Call to Action and NCPG's Future Position

NCPG reiterates that it will continue to be guided by evidence, always prioritizing harm mitigation through transparency and support for updated regulatory standards. Although the organization does not take a stance on the legality of these markets, it insists that consumer protection must be equivalent to that observed in recognized betting products.

“We will continue to raise awareness about the harms associated with gambling and advocate for effective safeguards,” concluded Derek Longmeier.

Today, the regulatory environment of prediction markets remains fluid in the United States, but NCPG's position is clear: risk reduction is indispensable, regardless of the legal label applied to the product. Involved sectors have the opportunity to collaborate with the common goal of elevating protection standards and responding to the emerging challenge posed by prediction markets.