Polymarket investigates dozens of fresh wallets after Israel election bets

Polymarket is investigating dozens of newly opened wallets that placed bets on the 27 October 2026 Israel election, the platform’s research team told Bloomberg on Thursday 29 October. Reuters published a summary of the report later that same day.

Volume and timing

The three main Polymarket markets tied to the vote — which party wins the most seats, the number of Likud seats, and who will be the next prime minister — together accumulated about $106.4 million in trading volume, according to an Unchained review of Polymarket’s market data on the Friday after the election. It was not immediately clear how much of that volume came from the wallets in question.

Hundreds of new accounts placed wagers shortly before polls closed on Tuesday, backing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to retain office and Likud to win the largest number of seats. Those positions paid off after exit polls gave Likud more seats than early reports had suggested.

On‑chain signals and trackers

On‑chain analytics firm Bubblemaps counted 101 Polymarket accounts that received their first funding on election day before polls closed, the company told Reuters. Polysights, which monitors flows into Polymarket, posted on X after polls closed that its tools detected “massive inflows of YES buys on fresh wallets” as Netanyahu’s odds rose, and characterised the activity as “definitely worth investigating.”

"massive inflows of YES buys on fresh wallets", Polysights on X

Bloomberg added that both groups regard the activity as suspicious and are digging deeper, while cautioning that findings are not conclusive: distinguishing possible insider information from original research or a lucky bet can be difficult. No operator has been publicly accused of wrongdoing.

What Polymarket’s rules allow

Polymarket’s market integrity page states that its terms prohibit trading on stolen confidential information, illegal tips, or on events that a trader can influence. As remedies, the company says it can expel wallets, pursue legal action, or refer matters to the relevant authorities when appropriate, and that it has “referred 90+ accounts to law enforcement” and is cooperating with open investigations. For more on regulatory expectations see [regulatory coverage](/regulation).

"We can ban wallets, take legal action, or refer matters to law enforcement when warranted.", Polymarket market integrity page

The episode follows a string of insider‑use cases in prediction markets: in April federal prosecutors charged a U.S. Army master sergeant for using classified intelligence to win more than $409,000 on Polymarket. This month Kalshi reviewed three small bets backing the White House press secretary’s selection before it was reported, and last month the House Oversight Committee broadened its insider‑trading probe to include more platforms.