Robinhood: prediction market revenues reach $173m in Q3

Robinhood reported revenues from its prediction markets business of $173m in the third quarter of 2026, a more than sixfold increase versus the same period a year earlier. The figure includes $28m from Rothera, the CFTC-regulated exchange run in a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group, and reflects a record event-contract volume.

Volume and revenue contribution

Trading in event contracts reached 16.4bn contracts in Q3 2026, up from 2.3bn in Q3 2025 and 13.6bn in the prior quarter, representing more than a sevenfold year‑on‑year increase and a 21% quarter‑on‑quarter rise. According to Robinhood’s earnings report, event contracts accounted for nearly 20% of the company’s $867m transaction revenues, surpassing $120m in crypto revenues.

Total company revenue rose 12% year‑on‑year to a record $1.42bn, while net income fell 14% to $476m.

Rothera: rapid scale and initial run‑rate

Rothera generated more than $100m in annualized revenue in its first full quarter of operations after launching in June. Since launch Rothera has processed over 6.4bn contracts and handled 3.4bn contracts during Q3, up from 2.1bn in Q2.

"We also added a new business cylinder with over $100 million in annualized revenues this quarter as Rothera scaled rapidly," said chief financial officer Shiv Verma in the earnings announcement.

Rothera accounted for $28m of the $173m in event‑contract revenues Robinhood reported for Q3.

Exchange stakes and routing paths

During the earnings call the company provided more detail on agreements with Crypto.com and OG.com, including initial equity stakes and the option to increase them. Robinhood received an initial 1% in Crypto.com and OG.com, with the ability to earn up to 10% ownership depending on the depth of the partnership over the coming years, according to Shiv Verma.

Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley questioned the logic of holding stakes in competing exchanges. Verma responded:

"What you should expect is Rothera will be our primary exchange, and Crypto.com/OG.com will now be our main second exchange."

Verma added that Robinhood expects to move away from most of its other exchange partners by late 2026 or early 2027, concentrating the vast majority of trading activity on Rothera and on Crypto.com/OG.com. The discussion did not include Kalshi, which had been Robinhood’s primary partner before Rothera and the Crypto.com agreement; in 2025 Robinhood accounted for more than half of Kalshi’s volume in that period.

Verma noted the financial advantage of holding stakes: unlike stocks or options, event contracts on different exchanges are not necessarily fungible, so routing decisions can create financial incentives for Robinhood when it directs flow to OG.com or Crypto.com, in addition to developing Rothera in the joint venture with Susquehanna. The explanation includes a regulatory and commercial dimension relevant to the sector.

Product expansion and regulatory approvals

Robinhood said it is close to launching contracts tied to corporate results and KPIs, announced at the HOOD Summit in September, although final approvals are still pending. The company indicated the products will enable trading on earnings per share (EPS), revenue and other financial or operating metrics of individual companies.

The update follows the October 13 approval by the SEC of KPI contracts proposed by Cboe, which Robinhood intends to distribute. The approval came despite objections from Kalshi and Rothera, which asked for a delay over unresolved regulatory issues. Robinhood said teams are awaiting final approvals and that the contracts will be available in the near term, with no specific launch date.

CEO Vlad Tenev added that Rothera is working to attract futures commission merchants (FCMs) beyond Robinhood and that the absence of a competing retail platform on Rothera could make it easier for other brokers to use the exchange as a neutral gateway. He also described a focus on financial and commodity contracts, saying: "I think we can own the financial category because that's like a unique advantage we have."

Trading mix and early fourth‑quarter months

Robinhood said non‑sport contracts made up about 30% in the third quarter, versus 15% in Q2, although it did not specify whether those percentages refer to volume, contract count or another measure. In October, at the start of the fourth quarter, average daily event‑contract activity rose roughly 10% versus Q3, according to Verma.

The company also noted that, during Q3, Rothera handled 3.4bn contracts and that the platform has processed more than 6.4bn contracts since June. These figures underpin the jump to 16.4bn event contracts for Robinhood’s platform in the quarter.

Open questions remaining

Robinhood did not give a firm launch date for the corporate‑results and KPI contracts; Verma also did not clarify whether the relationship with Kalshi will end entirely. The company will continue to monitor regulatory approvals and the execution of its partnerships with Crypto.com and OG.com while it scales Rothera.