Robinhood Shares Rise 17% Amid Positive Analyses and NFL Opportunities

Robinhood shares, traded on Nasdaq, experienced a 17% increase on Thursday, September 4, 2026, driven primarily by positive reports from Morgan Stanley and Piper Sandler ahead of the NFL season. The stock closed the day in New York at $124.72, surpassing the previous peak of $123.24 recorded in January and bringing the company's market capitalization to $112.1 billion. In just the past week, Robinhood's market value grew by around $20 billion.

Analysts Boost Robinhood's Stock

The recent upward trend is partly attributed to a note from Morgan Stanley that raised its price target for Robinhood from $124 to $150. The report highlighted the potential of Robinhood’s prediction markets, especially following the launch of the Rothera platform this year. In January, Robinhood finalized a partnership with Susquehanna, a quantitative trading firm, to acquire 90% of the derivatives exchanges of Miami International Holdings (MIAX) as part of a joint venture. Previously, Robinhood had been one of the main drivers of volume and activity on the Kalshi prediction market, but has since internalized much of that activity onto Rothera.

"We are increasingly seeing evidence that the expanded product capabilities are improving the economics of Robinhood's customer base, enabling more assets and activity per customer, as well as better economic outcomes," stated the Morgan Stanley report.

The favorable outlook was reinforced by Piper Sandler, which raised its price target for Robinhood to $145 and pointed out the strategic position of the company amid the NFL's return. According to Piper Sandler, approximately 23% of prediction market volume has migrated from Kalshi to Rothera since June. The report identified that during the previous football season, Robinhood users accounted for between 22% and 30% of the total volume traded on Kalshi, a share that has now fallen to single digits as Kalshi seeks to attract more of its own users.

Participation and Volume in Prediction Markets

The report cites the gap between the popularity of American football and other sports in the U.S., suggesting that the high volumes traded during the World Cup anticipate a strong catalyst for Robinhood’s event prediction revenues during the third and fourth quarters of 2026, thanks to the NFL and college football. During the World Cup, Kalshi reported the addition of more than three million new users and a trading volume exceeding $1.2 billion just for betting on the winning country. In total, the tournament generated $27 billion in traded volumes on Kalshi, according to Reuters. The event—held in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico—allowed Kalshi to access stadium advertising through its agreement with ADI Predictstreet, licensed in Gibraltar. Rothera also experienced a significant volume increase during the World Cup.

Event Contracts and Robinhood's Product Strategy

According to internal data from Robinhood, the number of event contracts traded in July reached 6.1 billion, which represents a 5% decrease from June, but an increase of over 20 times compared to July 2025. Deutsche Bank identified that event contracts linked to key indicators of publicly traded companies could become the largest category in Robinhood's prediction markets. Although this type of market is not yet available, analyst Brian Bedell anticipated in his report that the volume in contracts related to U.S. company KPIs could exceed a trillion by 2028, surpassing even those related to sports, regardless of any favorable ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court on national regulation. Currently, Robinhood already offers prediction markets on oil and gas prices, inflation rates, Nasdaq closures, and precious metals prices.

Regulation, Competition, and Legal Context in the U.S.

This growth coincides with the decision of the state of New Jersey to request that the U.S. Supreme Court (SCOTUS) review the contracts related to sporting events, following the ruling by the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals in favor of Nevada and to the detriment of Kalshi; this contrasts with the support given to Kalshi by the Third Circuit in its legal dispute with New Jersey. While it is still uncertain whether the Supreme Court will accept the case, its eventual ruling could significantly alter the regulation of prediction markets in the U.S. Kalshi is currently valued at $22 billion, while Polymarket is preparing to close a funding round that would place its valuation at $21 billion. Donald Trump Jr. serves as an advisor to both platforms. The Supreme Court currently has three justices appointed by former President Trump; the same is true for the three judges of the Ninth Circuit involved in the Nevada case. Vlad Tenev, President and CEO of Robinhood, is scheduled to speak at a Goldman Sachs conference next week.