Spain requires licence for prediction markets under Law 13/2011

The Dirección General de Ordenación del Juego (DGOJ) declared on 30 October at MERGE Madrid 2026 that prediction-market platforms must obtain a Spanish licence if their products fit the legal definition of gambling under Law 13/2011. Mikel Arana, Director General of the DGOJ, said on the panel there is no new licence category and that the decisive criterion is how the product works.

The DGOJ position presented at MERGE Madrid 2026

Arana set out the DGOJ position during a panel on regulatory perspectives for prediction markets at MERGE Madrid, a conference focused on crypto, blockchain and Web3 that brings together regulators, financial institutions and digital-asset firms. The regulator maintains that platforms offering products that constitute gambling under Law 13/2011 must hold the appropriate licence and that unauthorised operators cannot lawfully serve customers in Spain.

The DGOJ also confirmed it continues to apply access restrictions from Spain to unauthorised services, consistent with the precautionary blocks ordered in May when it opened proceedings against Kalshi and Polymarket. No new authorisation route was announced: there is no new licence category, no legislative changes and no alternative path to the existing Law 13/2011.

Open cases and precautionary blocking

The regulator opened proceedings against Polymarket and Kalshi in May and ordered both websites blocked as a precautionary measure. The ministry initially expected the procedure to take “three to four months”, but that period has elapsed. On 30 October the DGOJ gave no update on the final status of those files and did not confirm a ruling; Polymarket and Kalshi remain blocked in Spain and there is not yet a formal finding on whether their products constitute unauthorised gambling under Law 13/2011.

How the DGOJ decides: the product, not the label

The authority stressed that the key is the mechanics of the contract or wager. The DGOJ assesses whether a platform’s offering meets the legal definition of gambling, regardless of how the company markets or labels it. The existing legal framework includes the concept of a matched bet, in which the operator acts as an intermediary between third parties and takes a commission. That category has previously been used to describe prediction-market activity and can provide a route for licensed operators.

A Gaming in Spain seminar held this year highlighted that predictive-style betting on sport could fit the current rules so long as the operator acts solely as an intermediary.

International landscape and regulatory pressure

Responses across Europe are heterogeneous. The Malta Gaming Authority is developing specific rules and has already approved Hacksaw’s licence extension for a B2B prediction-market platform. Gibraltar has tried to attract sector firms and Nevis published its framework recently. By contrast, Italy blocked Polymarket and the French regulator urged the company to prevent access from France. In Asia, a New Taipei court authorised blocks of Kalshi in Taiwan.

In the United States, prosecutors in Utah have charged Kalshi and its cofounders with 14 criminal counts.

Funding, partnerships and the financial route

Investor interest has not abated. Kalshi told Reuters on 29 October of a new $1 billion funding round that pushed its valuation to $40 billion; a May round led by Coatue of the same amount had valued the company at $22 billion. Three days before announcing the round, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi announced a strategic collaboration under which Kalshi will list contracts settled against official S&P index values and S&P DJI will work on new indices built from event-contract data.

Tarek Mansour, Kalshi cofounder and CEO, said: "Kalshi’s aspiration is to be the next great financial exchange."

Kalshi and Polymarket have also contacted the London Stock Exchange and Euronext seeking support for recognition of prediction markets within financial services. Access to index and data licences can offer these platforms an entry into international finance, but that does not authorise operation in regulated markets such as Spain; that remains a separate regulatory question Madrid has made clear.

Practical implications for operators looking at Spain

The first consideration for any platform interested in the Spanish market is product design: a contract that meets the legal definition of gambling requires a DGOJ licence. If the product falls outside that definition, the regulatory pathway remains uncertain and has not been defined by the authority.

Licensed operators face quantified regulatory costs: they must comply, among other measures, with the new inter-operator daily deposit cap of €700, which comes into force with mandatory compliance in March 2027. An unauthorised competitor offering similar products would not bear those costs.

The reform of Law 13/2011 was subject to public consultation; the consultation period closed on 22 June and the DGOJ must prepare a draft bill for submission to the Congress and the Senate.