Taxes in the Netherlands and World Cup Prediction Markets

The increase in gaming taxes in the Netherlands did not meet the expected targets for 2026. While significant revenue increase was anticipated, the reality proved to be quite different. This is a central issue for the sector, especially given its impact on physical operators.

Tax Increase in the Netherlands

The Netherlands raised its gaming tax in two phases: from 30.5% to 34.2% in January 2025, and then to 37.8% in January 2026. The Dutch Ministry of Finance had projected additional revenues of €216 million for 2026, but reality showed a much lower figure, barely reaching €57 million. This gap was due not only to the rising tax rate but also to new restrictions on deposits and advertising, as well as a decline in revenue momentum following Euro 2024.

Visits to physical locations, such as casinos and gaming halls, decreased by approximately 11% compared to the previous year. Several operators pointed to the tax increase as a factor in their operational closures.

Licensing Regimes and Market Adaptation

In Ireland, the new licensing regime under the IAGR came into effect on July 1. Currently, 89% of online betting is regulated in the country, although only 35% of the total market is onshore. Platform providers such as Pragmatic Solutions are already operational to support operators during this transition. The market might experience considerable change as regulation expands.

Activity in Prediction Markets During the World Cup

The World Cup H2 received particular attention for activity in the prediction markets. Despite the volume, the Democratic Republic of the Congo was the most wagered country that did not win, while France, Spain, and Portugal led the bets to win. Interestingly, the prediction markets failed to anticipate the matches with the largest losses, a result that benefited traditional sportsbooks.

Summary of the Africa Summit and Tax Discussions

A highlighted event was the Africa Summit at iGB L!VE, where crucial topics like sustainable taxation and player protection were discussed. Regulators from Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya participated, along with entities like the African Fiscal Management Forum. This meeting coincided with a session of the African iGaming Alliance that pushed plans for a continental Safe Gambling Week.