BGC Warns Machine Games Duty Increase Could Put 16,000 Jobs at Risk

The Betting and Gaming Council issued a warning ahead of the UK Budget on 14 October 2026 that proposed tax rises could threaten thousands of high-street jobs. The BGC said independent EY modelling shows raising Machine Games Duty to 40% could put up to 16,000 jobs at risk, endanger almost 1,500 betting shops and 34 casinos, and leave the Treasury up to £124 million worse off.

Machine Games Duty increase: EY modelling and the headline figures

The BGC commissioned or referenced independent modelling by Ernst & Young that estimates the impact of an MGD rise to 40 per cent. The modelled outcomes cited by the BGC are specific: up to 16,000 roles at risk across Britain; almost 1,500 betting shops could be jeopardised; and 34 casinos could be affected. The analysis also projects a negative fiscal effect, with Treasury receipts potentially falling by £124 million if the tax is raised to that level.

The council presented these figures as part of its pre-Budget lobbying to the Chancellor. Grainne Hurst, Chief Executive of the Betting and Gaming Council, repeatedly framed the evidence in employment and regional terms, noting both the scale of jobs supported and the Treasury risk.

How a machine games duty increase would hit high streets and regional labour markets

Britain's regulated betting shops currently support more than 36,000 jobs, the BGC states. More than 80% of these jobs are located outside London in market towns, seaside communities and former industrial areas. The BGC emphasised that the sector supplies important entry-level employment: 19% of the workforce is under 25, and 51% are under 35, compared to national averages cited by the BGC of 11% and 35% respectively.

Women make up 50% of the workforce in betting shops, the BGC added, and the roles frequently provide structured contracts and flexible hours that accommodate caring responsibilities. The council's argument links the demographic profile to the distribution of jobs across regions where alternative opportunities can be scarcer.

BGC response and call to the Chancellor

Grainne Hurst set out the BGC’s position in a direct address to the Treasury. She said Britain’s betting shops are "good, secure jobs in market towns, former industrial communities and seaside towns, many of them across the North, where opportunities can be harder to find." Hurst warned that another tax rise would place thousands of livelihoods on the line and reiterated the EY modelling figures.

The Betting and Gaming Council urged the Chancellor to rule out increases to Machine Games Duty and to halt planned rises in General Betting Duty. The BGC framed its recommendation as economic as well as social: the council points to the modelled Treasury shortfall of £124 million to argue that the proposed tax change could be counterproductive for public finances.

Regional breakdown and labour-market context

The BGC supplied regional detail from the modelling: of the jobs at risk, 80% are outside London; 27% are in the North of England; and nearly 40% are across northern regions and Scotland combined. The council used that distribution to underline the geographic concentration of potential impact.

Those figures are presented alongside the workforce demographics to demonstrate who would be affected. The BGC highlighted the role betting shops play as employers of younger workers and women, positioning the sector as an entry-point into the labour market that provides training in customer service and administrative skills.

Implications for operators, casinos and Treasury receipts

The BGC’s summary links the operational consequences for betting operators and casinos with the fiscal analysis. The quoted outcomes — almost 1,500 shops and 34 casinos at risk — imply potential closures or downsizing that would contract payrolls and business activity in affected communities.

On the fiscal side, the EY modelling that the BGC cites projects a fall in Treasury receipts of up to £124 million should MGD be increased to 40%. The council uses that projected shortfall to argue against the measure as a net-positive for public revenue.

What the BGC wants next and what to watch in the Budget

The Betting and Gaming Council’s immediate ask is that the Chancellor rule out raising Machine Games Duty to 40 per cent and pause planned rises in General Betting Duty. Stakeholders and observers should watch the Budget for any explicit reference to MGD or to changes in betting taxation, and for official Treasury analysis that may confirm or challenge the EY figures.

The BGC has framed its case around employment counts, regional exposure and a fiscal projection. The Chancellor’s response in the Budget will determine whether those modelling outputs become central to policy debate or are superseded by alternative Treasury estimates.

"Britain’s betting shops support more than 36,000 jobs, and more than eight in ten of them are outside London," Grainne Hurst said, adding that many roles are the first job or first pay packet for young people.

"Independent EY modelling shows that raising Machine Games Duty to 40 per cent could cost up to 16,000 jobs, put almost 1,500 betting shops and 34 casinos at risk, and leave the Treasury £124 million worse off," Hurst said.

Where this sits for industry readers

Operators and suppliers should note the BGC’s emphasis on regional employment and the potential for closures should tax policy change. For those tracking regulatory and fiscal developments, the issue sits at the intersection of regulation and the commercial viability of retail betting estates. The Budget will be the immediate policy milestone to watch.