CreditSights: Macau Can Still Hit MOP236bn (US$29.2bn) GGR Target for 2026

CreditSights said Macau can still achieve the government’s MOP236-billion (US$29.2-billion) casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) target for 2026, but the market needs an average monthly GGR of MOP16.3 billion in the fourth quarter to reach the full-year goal. The research note, published on Monday, said October’s revenue figure will provide a clearer indication of whether recent softer months are cyclical or structural.

Analysts’ view and the math

Analysts Nicholas Chen and David Bussey wrote that it is “too early to conclude” recent monthly softness signals a lasting market deterioration. Macau generated nearly MOP187.12 billion in casino GGR in the first nine months of 2026, up 3.2 percent year-on-year, which CreditSights calculated as 79 percent of the government’s full-year forecast.

Average monthly revenue during the nine months to 30 September was about MOP20.8 billion, the firm noted, which sits above the MOP19.7 billion monthly average implied by the MOP236-billion target. For the fourth quarter the required average drops to MOP16.3 billion per month to meet the annual figure.

"For now, we still see room for Macau to reach its 2026 GGR target," the analysts wrote.

CreditSights cautioned that some recent declines should not be treated as structural. The firm argued that year-on-year falls in June and July were skewed by the FIFA World Cup, and that the roughly 1 percent year-on-year declines in August and September were marginal by comparison.

Market signals and company comments

Macau’s Chief Executive, Sam Hou Fai, reiterated earlier this month that the government has no plans to change its full-year GGR forecast and flagged October as an important gauge of whether higher visitor traffic translates into gaming revenue.

CreditSights highlighted that robust visitor volumes during the October Golden Week holiday could lift monthly GGR. The note also referenced Sands China Ltd management’s optimism about a seasonally stronger fourth quarter, a view linked to Golden Week and the NBA China Games in Macau.

Patrick Dumont, chairman and chief executive of Las Vegas Sands Corp, described the group’s third-quarter performance as "aberrational" amid softer high-end play. Sands China chief executive and president Grant Chum Kwan Lock said underlying demand remained solid, pointing to growth in patron numbers and property visits.

The firm also pointed to segmental divergence: third-quarter VIP GGR was broadly flat year-on-year, while mass-market GGR fell 5.2 percent. Mass accounted for 71.9 percent of the quarter’s total.

September visitor arrivals rose approximately 16 percent year-on-year, but GGR per visitor fell 15 percent from a year earlier to MOP5,616. CreditSights warned that GGR per visitor is only a proxy for gaming expenditure, not a direct measure of individual spending, and expects overall GGR to remain largely driven by visitor volumes.