Digiplus earnings forecast cut sharply as player spend drags 2026 recovery

Maybank Securities Inc reduced its earnings estimates for Philippines-listed DigiPlus Interactive Corp on Monday, citing weaker-than-expected first-half results and constrained household spending that will pressure the operator through the remainder of 2026. Analyst Raffy Mendoza cut core net income forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 43% and 48% respectively, to about PHP7.8 billion (US$124.3 million) and PHP8.6 billion.

Digiplus earnings forecast: what changed in the revisions

Maybank lowered revenue and profit assumptions after adjusting down monthly active users and average revenue per user (ARPU). The brokerage now projects revenue of about PHP65.4 billion for 2026 and PHP64.9 billion for 2027, reflecting revenue cuts of between 18% and 32% across 2026–28. Those revisions imply a decline in core net income of roughly 39% in 2026 followed by an approximate 10% recovery in 2027.

"DigiPlus faces a difficult second half of 2026 as pressure on household spending weighs on its domestic business, although its fundamentals remain intact," Maybank wrote, according to the memo. — Raffy Mendoza, Maybank Securities Inc

Maybank split the downgrade into two drivers: a H1 performance that fell short of forecasts and macro assumptions that reduce disposable income for online gaming customers, namely subdued growth and elevated inflation in the Philippines.

Monthly active users, ARPU and platform mix

Maybank reported DigiPlus’ monthly active user (MAU) base stabilised at approximately 5.75 million in Q2 across the group’s platforms. Platform breakdown was:

• BingoPlus: ~3.35 million users

• GameZone: ~1.83 million users

• ArenaPlus: ~570,000 users

Although the combined MAU exceeded Maybank’s prior forecast of 4.75 million, the brokerage estimated ARPU at about PHP805 per active user per month, materially below its earlier assumption of PHP1,250. That lower spend per user is the central drag on revenue and the key reason for the earnings cuts.

H1 results that forced the downgrade

Maybank’s memo shows DigiPlus’ first-half revenue fell roughly 31% year‑on‑year, to PHP32.9 billion. First-half earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) dropped about 40%, to PHP5.5 billion, and the EBITDA margin narrowed to 16.7% from 19.0% a year earlier. The operator’s Q2 revenue alone was down 36.8% versus the prior-year quarter.

The brokerage models an EBITDA margin of roughly 18.5% for both 2026 and 2027, a moderate recovery from the first-half trough but below prior projections.

Drivers that could reverse the trajectory

Maybank flagged three potential upside catalysts that could support future upgrades to forecasts: stronger spend per user, improved customer retention, and returns from the group’s expansion investments. The firm also highlighted the potential value from DigiPlus’ physical-casino investment and clearer outcomes from its overseas ventures.

DigiPlus completed subscriptions totalling HKD1.6 billion (US$204.1 million) in International Entertainment Corp convertible notes in June. Full conversion would give DigiPlus a 53.89% stake in International Entertainment Corp, the Hong Kong-listed company that controls the Manila property now promoted as LaVie Resort & Casino Manila.

Maybank also noted the relaunch of DigiPlus’ operations in Brazil in July, but said the group’s recent reopening there and a newly-announced Brazilian online betting ban have left overseas revenue and regulatory clarity uncertain. The broker has not yet folded the group’s Brazil and South Africa ventures into its models pending further disclosure from management.

Risks and what operators and investors should watch

Maybank identified tighter regulation and intensified competition as downside risks. The brokerage remains attentive to ARPU trends: the current estimate of PHP805 is the proximate reason for the revenue cuts, even though MAU has stabilised higher than expected. Monitoring user retention, cross-sell between BingoPlus, ArenaPlus and GameZone, and any evidence of spend recovery will be key to judging whether the market can meet Maybank’s projected 10% net-income rebound in 2027.

For technical and commercial vendors serving operators, an ARPU shortfall shifts the focus from user acquisition to monetisation and retention tooling. Investors will look for management to quantify expected returns from the LaVie stake conversion and to disclose more detail on the scale and timing of any revenue from its Brazil and South Africa operations.

"Potential returns from the physical casino investment and greater clarity on overseas businesses are upside catalysts," Maybank added in the memo.

What the numbers mean for short-term outlook

The revised forecasts mark a material downgrade rather than a collapse: Maybank still expects a modest recovery in 2027 driven by per-player spend and retention improvements. The scale of recovery, however, depends on whether ARPU rebounds from PHP805 toward the prior assumption of PHP1,250, and on regulatory clarity in overseas markets. The balance of risks — tighter regulation, competition, and softer household spending — leaves DigiPlus exposed through the remainder of 2026.

For readers tracking market developments, watch DigiPlus’ next management updates for: updated MAU and ARPU figures, any disclosure on the International Entertainment Corp conversion timetable, and formal commentary on operations in Brazil and South Africa.

Operators and vendors focused on monetisation will find Maybank’s note a reminder that stabilised user bases alone do not prevent sharp revenue downgrades if spend per user falters.