NCPG Flags Gambling Harms in Prediction Markets, Calls for Robust Safeguards

Prediction markets—platforms allowing users to bet on event outcomes—are now used by millions in the US. The National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG), led by Board President Derek Longmeier, states that these platforms expose consumers to the same gambling-related risks as traditional betting. Regardless of legal classification, NCPG insists on urgent safeguards matching those in regulated gambling.

Prediction Markets and Functional Gambling Risks

Prediction markets have evolved from a niche offering to mainstream use. The NCPG emphasizes that, in practical terms, prediction market activity is gambling from a risk perspective. Board President Derek Longmeier said, "Regardless of how prediction markets are currently legally defined, NCPG believes it is functionally gambling and can expose consumers to many of the same risks and harms associated with traditional gambling." He highlighted that the Financial Trader Health and Safety Initiative, launched earlier this year, was built around this recognition. The key concern is not legal status but the real harms—financial, emotional, relational—that are already manifest.

Public Perception and Regulatory Neutrality

A recent Harris Poll conducted for NCPG quantified public concern:

• 85% of Americans believe unhealthy or addictive behaviours can develop through prediction market platforms.
• 84% agree these platforms need the same consumer protections as gambling.

NCPG takes a neutral stance on prediction market legality but is unequivocal on harm prevention. They point out that the organisation’s mission remains independent of regulatory or legal definitions. Their commitment is to intervene where harm exists, not to determine whether an activity technically qualifies as gambling. "We are not neutral on the need to prevent and reduce gambling-related harm wherever it occurs," Longmeier said.

Responsible Gambling Protections: NCPG’s Minimum Standards

NCPG urges all entities offering betting-style products—including prediction market operators and technology platforms—to immediately adopt documented consumer protection measures. These protections, described as the bare minimum, include:

• Responsible-engagement tools (deposit limits, time-outs, etc.)
• Self-exclusion options for users
• Rigorous age verification
• Clear and conspicuous risk disclosures
• Direct lines to professional help

The council invites collaboration from a broad group: gambling operators, sports leagues, prediction market providers, financial firms, regulators, policymakers, consumer advocates, researchers, community groups, and addiction treatment professionals. Broad engagement is aimed at building real, consistent consumer protections.

NCPG’s Funding and Advocacy Independence

As a donor-supported nonprofit, the NCPG asserts financial transparency and independence. Many members and donors are gambling operators, but the organisation states that funding relationships do not influence research, policy, or public statements. Membership, funding, or collaboration "does not give any person or organization control over NCPG's research, advocacy, policy positions, or public statements."

The council's approach enables it to operate where harm actually occurs, undeterred by federal funding limitations. It remains vigilant that acceptance of industry funding never equates to endorsement of specific firms or practices.

Rapid Platform Growth and the Need for Adaptive Regulation

The market for prediction markets is growing fastest among young users. This rapid expansion raises concerns about infrastructure lagging behind technology. The NCPG says consumer protections must stay apace with new platforms: "The infrastructure to protect consumers has to move as fast as the platforms reaching them. Right now, it isn't."

NCPG will continue to apply evidence-based frameworks, advocate for safeguards, and speak candidly about the realities of gambling-related harm on any platform enabling predictive wagering. Their aim is proactive intervention—"to get ahead of harm, not to react after the fact."

"People are experiencing real financial, emotional, and relationship consequences as a result of prediction markets. The harm is not theoretical, and we cannot wait to act," said Derek Longmeier, NCPG Board President.

For more on the evolution of betting products and harm minimization, see our news and regulation sections.