Robinhood prediction market revenue hits $173m as Rothera scales rapidly

Robinhood reported that prediction market revenue rose more than sixfold year‑over‑year to $173m in the third quarter of 2026 as event‑contract trading volume set a new record and its Rothera exchange joint venture expanded rapidly. Event‑contract trading volume reached 16.4bn contracts in Q3, up from 2.3bn a year earlier and up 21% versus Q2's 13.6bn. The company said event contracts accounted for nearly 20% of its $867m in transaction‑based revenue for the quarter.

Q3 results and where prediction markets sit in Robinhood's business

Robinhood's overall revenue increased 12% year‑on‑year to a company record of $1.42bn in Q3, while net income declined 14% to $476m. The firm disclosed that its $173m of event‑contract revenue exceeded its cryptocurrency revenue of $120m for the quarter.

The $173m figure included $28m from Rothera, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)‑regulated exchange operated through Robinhood's joint venture with Susquehanna International Group. Robinhood said Rothera generated more than $100m in annualised revenue in its first full quarter of operation and has processed more than 6.4bn contracts since launching in June. The company's earnings presentation showed Rothera handled 3.4bn contracts during Q3, compared with 2.1bn in Q2.

"We also added a new business cylinder with over $100 million in annualized revenues this quarter as Rothera scaled rapidly," Robinhood CFO Shiv Verma said in the company's earnings announcement.

Exchange strategy and partnerships

Executives disclosed new details about partnerships with Crypto.com and OG.com, including an initial 1% equity ownership stake in each platform and the ability to earn up to 10% ownership depending on future cooperation. Verma framed Rothera as Robinhood's primary exchange going forward. He said: "What you should expect is Rothera will be our primary exchange, and Crypto.com/OG.com will now be our main second exchange." He added that Robinhood expects to move away from most other exchange partners by the end of 2026 or early 2027, concentrating the vast majority of trading activity on Rothera and Crypto.com/OG.com.

Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley challenged that strategy on the earnings call, asking how Robinhood would decide where to send trading flow when it holds stakes in multiple competing venues. CEO Vlad Tenev defended keeping multiple relationships to offer customers a broader selection and execution quality, saying, "I don't think we can send all of our flow to one venue." Verma explained the financial logic: previously Robinhood routed flow to other exchanges without financial incentives; the new equity arrangements give Robinhood an opportunity to earn from activity it directs to OG.com and Crypto.com while continuing to develop Rothera with Susquehanna.

Notably absent from Verma's remarks was Kalshi, which had been Robinhood's principal prediction market exchange partner before Rothera and the Crypto.com deal. Robinhood previously accounted for more than half of Kalshi's volume in late 2025. Verma did not state whether Robinhood intends to end the relationship with Kalshi altogether.

Market mix and product roadmap

Robinhood management said non‑sports event contracts made up approximately 30% of activity in Q3, up from 15% in Q2; Verma did not specify whether those percentages refer to trading volume, contract counts, or another metric. CEO Vlad Tenev described ambitions to grow financial event contracts — including crypto, commodities and corporate financial performance products — and suggested the company could "own the financial category" because of its capabilities.

Executives said they are nearing the launch of contracts tied to corporate earnings and key performance indicators (KPIs), products announced at Robinhood's HOOD Summit in September. The company is awaiting final approvals before listing these earnings contracts; no specific launch date was provided. The update follows the US Securities and Exchange Commission's Oct. 13 approval of Cboe's proposed KPI contracts, which Robinhood plans to distribute. The SEC approval came despite objections from Kalshi and Rothera that had urged the agency to delay the products.

Verma also reported that event contract average daily volumes (ADVs) were already up about 10% to start the fourth quarter, referring to October trading compared with Q3.

Rothera's positioning and broker engagement

Responding to a question from Goldman Sachs analyst James Yarrow, Tenev said Rothera is working to attract futures commission merchants (FCMs) beyond Robinhood. He suggested Rothera's lack of a competing retail trading platform could make it an appealing neutral gateway for FCMs, and he highlighted growing activity outside sports markets. The company said Rothera had processed more than 6.4bn contracts since its June launch.

Robinhood's disclosure positions Rothera as a central pillar in the firm's prediction markets rollout while the company balances equity stakes in other venues and readies new financial‑category products.

"I think we can own the financial category because that's like a unique advantage we have," Tenev said on the call.