FDJ United cuts 2026 revenue guidance again after Q3 revenue falls 8.1% to €794m

FDJ United announced on 21 October that it has cut its 2026 revenue guidance for the third time this year after third-quarter revenue fell 8.1% to €794m and nine‑month revenue declined 5.6% to €2,576m. The Euronext Paris‑listed group now expects a low‑single‑digit decline in gross gaming revenue (GGR), a mid‑single‑digit revenue decline and a recurring EBITDA margin of around 23%, while beginning a review of online markets and non‑core assets with conclusions due in early 2027.

Results and the fresh guidance

FDJ United reported Q3 revenue of €794m and Q3 GGR of €1,950m; over nine months the group's GGR fell 2.8% in one statement and is also reported as down 6.1% in the third quarter release. Revenue for the first nine months was €2,576m, a 5.6% decline versus the prior year and steeper than the 4.5% fall reported for the first half. The company attributes more than two percentage points of the nine‑month revenue decline to tax increases.

Chairwoman and chief executive Stéphane Pallez pointed to a combination of gaming cycles, lower footfall in a weak economic environment and the effects of announced tax rises. The group now incorporates more than €70m of additional gaming tax into its 2026 outlook and says cost control measures "will enable it to maintain a recurring EBITDA margin of around 23%". Earlier in the year the company had targeted a 24.5% margin in February and a 23%–24% margin at different updates in April and July.

Drivers: jackpots, bettor wins, tax and retail payout

Draw‑game revenue fell 17.3% in Q3 to €171m and fell 12.2% over nine months. FDJ United highlighted a sharp reduction in large EuroMillions jackpots: to the end of September there were 12 EuroMillions jackpots above €130m against 27 a year earlier, and one jackpot above €200m compared with 12 previously. Instant‑game revenue rose 0.3% to €935m for the nine months, but higher payout rates on instant games weighed on overall lottery revenue.

Retail sports betting revenue declined 4.5% to €297m over nine months as the retail sports‑betting payout ratio rose by more than 400 basis points to nearly 80%.

Tax increases have been a material drag. FDJ United says tax rises cost €62m to the end of September and that most of the tax burden was set before 2026 began. France raised levies on online sports betting from 54.9% to 59.3% of GGR from 1 July 2025, the Netherlands' rate rose to 37.8% in January and the UK Remote Gaming Duty increased from 21% to 40% in April. In February the group estimated the 2026 tax hit at nearly €90m; it now states more than €70m without explaining the revision.

Online business performance and structural review

The online unit, largely the former Kindred business acquired in October 2024 for €2.45 billion, held GGR virtually flat at €1,013m for the nine months but revenue fell 8.2% to €619m after €34m of extra tax. Excluding the Netherlands and the UK, online GGR rose 5.7%, driven by France and Scandinavia. GGR fell 8.6% in the Netherlands and 24.4% in the UK.

FDJ United says action plans in the UK should gradually restore performance and that a single proprietary sportsbook will cover most markets by the end of 2027, with "the refocusing of development teams in Europe" under way; the company gave no headcount numbers. The group is conducting a review of the online unit's markets and non‑core assets, with conclusions due "in early 2027 at the latest". The release did not name specific markets that are under review.

Market reaction, stock moves and analyst commentary

Shares traded at €19.95 at 10:10 on Thursday, down 5.05% from €21.01, and about 15% below the end‑2025 close of €23.62, according to ABC Bourse and Yahoo Finance data. JPMorgan cut its target to €19 on 7 October, citing French political and regulatory risk ahead of the 2027 presidential election, Agefi‑Dow Jones reported.

FDJ United's management has issued four guidance statements for 2026 and made three downgrades since February. The company says the latest downgrade stems from jackpots, higher bettor wins in retail, lower footfall and the pre‑announced tax increases, shifting the expectation to a mid‑single‑digit revenue decline and a recurring EBITDA margin of around 23%.

Strategic context for the group

Lottery and retail sports betting supplied 58% of nine‑month group revenue; FDJ United holds 61% of the French market by the Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ) first‑half report, where the group's decline offset almost half of online's growth. FDJ United recognised €135m of first‑half impairments on online assets earlier in the year. Rivals respond differently to tax changes: Entain grew UK and Ireland online revenue 14%, while Flutter has put up to 1,400 UK and Ireland jobs at risk, the company said.

The group positions its French franchise as subject to jackpot cycles that should reverse when EuroMillions and Loto are relaunched in 2027. Management has set a deadline for the online market review and will decide whether to reduce footprint, sell assets or close markets as part of that process.

"The group is now aiming at a low‑single digit decline in GGR and a mid‑single digit decline in revenue," the release said, and cost control "will enable it to maintain a recurring EBITDA margin of around 23%." — FDJ United press release, 21 October 2026

For context on regulatory levies and market share, see reporting on the Autorité Nationale des Jeux and market reaction in our regulation and news coverage. The strategic review will be material to FDJ United's online footprint and is likely to influence outputs in the b2b supplier market.