CFTC Pushes Registration as Prediction Markets and Parlays Draw Scrutiny

At the NEXTPredict conference on October 22, 2026, Commodity Futures Trading Commission Director of Enforcement David Miller told attendees the agency wants large offshore prediction market platforms operating in the U.S. to register with the commission so it can monitor their activity. Bernard Marantelli, CEO of White Swan Predicts, said parlay-style combination contracts carried about $18 billion in industrywide risk exposure over the seven days ending Tuesday, and that figure has been growing rapidly.

CFTC seeks registration and flagged risky contracts

David Miller said the CFTC has issued advisories warning that certain event contracts may violate federal rules or be susceptible to manipulation, citing injury-related sports contracts as an example. Miller declined to discuss internal agency conversations about a controversial market concerning an alleged rape at Cornell University that Polymarket removed from its international platform this week. He told the conference:

"We want to make sure that the FTXs don't happen again," Miller said.

Miller addressed how insider trading laws apply to prediction markets in a hypothetical about Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, saying trading on imminent events might not necessarily violate federal insider trading law, though it would likely breach an exchange's own rules. The remark came amid an active federal insider trading case against a U.S. Special Forces soldier accused of using classified information about an operation to capture Maduro to make more than $400,000 on Polymarket.

The CFTC message was framed as a policing and transparency priority: register large offshore operations so the commission can monitor trading and enforcement risks. Regulation coverage of registration issues was referenced by multiple speakers.

Parlay growth and platform mechanics

Bernard Marantelli said White Swan Predicts quotes roughly 120 million parlays daily and that seven-day industrywide parlay exposure of $18 billion grew about 20% weekly through the first five weeks of the NFL season. Marantelli projected the exposure could reach $30 billion by Christmas or early January. He described the growth bluntly: "The growth rate is out of control, really."

Parlay-style combination contracts on prediction markets differ from traditional sportsbook parlays because multiple market makers can compete to price the same parlay. That competition can offer customers different pricing and creates a revenue opportunity for firms such as White Swan and established sportsbooks including DraftKings and FanDuel.

Polymarket's RFQ technical lead Jacob Meleka said the platform processes thousands of requests for quotes and tens of thousands of quotes per second, highlighting the technical scale behind these markets.

Leagues and integrity concerns

Robinhood Vice President JB Mackenzie said his company has discussed integrity concerns with professional sports leagues and has avoided offering certain player-related contracts. Mackenzie added Robinhood has not offered markets the NFL and NBA specifically asked operators to avoid, calculating that potential revenue was not worth the reputational risk.

DraftKings CEO Jason Robins framed his company's position differently, stressing DraftKings' relationship with the NFL and stronger collaboration on safeguards. "I do think that we built the collaborative relationship where they feel more comfortable that we're taking the safeguard measures that are necessary," Robins said.

International Tennis Integrity Agency senior director of investigations Jenni Kennedy reported an anecdotal increase in courtsiders using prediction markets and warned that instant settlement on some platforms can create integrity risks that sportsbooks mitigate with betting delays. Kennedy said the organisation is seeing more courtsiders trying to engage with players.

Enforcement, litigation and industry context

Speakers repeatedly linked current court cases and state and federal lawsuits to the urgency of regulatory oversight. The conference highlighted three enforcement and risk vectors: potential market manipulation, insider trading allegations, and growing parlay volumes that concentrate exposure across many small combinational bets. The legal disputes include challenges to the legality of various prediction market offerings and requests from leagues for removal of vulnerable contracts, a point raised in filings the NFL made to the Supreme Court referencing operators including Kalshi.