CICC: No near‑term inflection point for Macau GGR or sector profits

China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Ltd (CICC) cut its Macau gross gaming revenue (GGR) and profitability forecasts for 2026 and 2027 and said there is “no clear near-term inflection point” for either metric, in a research note published on 23 October 2026. The brokerage now expects total Macau GGR to fall 1% year‑on‑year in 2026 and 7% in 2027, and has revised sector adjusted EBITDA estimates to approximately US$7.73 billion for 2026 and US$7.02 billion for 2027.

Forecast revisions and headline figures

CICC analysts Shengyong Goh, Jiayu Wang, and Nanxi Liu wrote that they had a “cautious” stance on the Macau gaming sector and cut their 2026 and 2027 total GGR forecasts. The brokerage projects total GGR to be 85% of pre‑pandemic 2019 levels in 2026 and 79% in 2027. Mass‑market GGR is forecast to rise 1% year‑on‑year in 2026 then decline 6% in 2027, while VIP GGR is forecast to shrink 10% year‑on‑year in both 2026 and 2027.

Following the GGR revisions, CICC trimmed its adjusted EBITDA by 7% for 2026 and 24% for 2027, which the note says would equate to year‑on‑year declines of 5% and 9% respectively. The analysts cited weak fundamentals in H2 2026, a high comparable base for the RMB‑HKD exchange rate, and a lack of new supply or catalysts in 2027 as reasons for the cuts.

Demand, visitation and the spending gap

CICC highlighted a divergence between rising visitor numbers and weaker GGR performance. The Macao Government Tourism Office (MGTO) reported average daily visitor volume for the Golden Week holiday from 1–7 October had increased 9% year‑on‑year, but CICC estimated GGR for 1–11 October declined 5% year‑on‑year on a like‑for‑like basis, with ADR at MOP836 million (US$103.5 million).

The analysts concluded that stronger traffic was being driven by lower‑spending visitors and that "premium demand remains soft." They wrote:

"We think the divergence between stronger visitor traffic and weaker GGR points to a deterioration in average spending power."

CICC added:

"Without meaningful new supply or policy changes or other catalysts to demand [side], we expect sector recovery to come later than we previously expected."

Operational signals and market pricing

The note observed a number of Macau casino operators appearing to enact a “hiring freeze” for frontline gaming sales roles, which CICC interpreted as managements preparing for a more subdued period of growth rather than a near‑term GGR acceleration. The brokerage also argued that the market has not fully priced in the demand weakness and that it expects further consensus downgrades following third quarter‑2026 results as market participants look beyond short‑term seasonality, holidays and RMB appreciation.

Events and regional competition

CICC reviewed Macau’s event calendar and said it appears to have become "less appealing" as a lever for driving incremental visitation. The brokerage contrasted Macau’s post‑pandemic event rollout with new competition from Hong Kong’s Kai Tak Stadium at Kai Tak Sports Park in Kowloon, which opened in March 2025 and has a 50,000 capacity and a retractable roof. The analysts argued Macau’s 2026 calendar was increasingly reliant on recurring formats and returning acts and that reduced novelty may limit the ability to generate incremental visits from leisure customers seeking new entertainment experiences.

The brokerage concluded its note by reiterating a cautious sector stance given current demand indicators, exchange‑rate comparables and the absence of fresh supply or policy catalysts for 2027. Read related coverage or examine operational themes in staffing and customer mix in CICC’s note for granular company‑level impact.[/news]