MGM’s Macau strength and Osaka pipeline underpin outlook after Q3 results

MGM Resorts International’s Macau operations helped offset weaker U.S. performance in the group’s third quarter, and the under-construction MGM Osaka remains a material source of long-term growth, analysts said after the Q3 results. MGM China Holdings Ltd recorded a 17.1 percent share of Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue in the third quarter, and Texas Capital Securities estimated the group’s share reached 19.2 percent in September.

Macau performance and margin dynamics

Analysts highlighted that favourable gaming hold contributed to the quarterly share gain but said market-share momentum is visible. Texas Capital Securities wrote that “While the third quarter of 2026 share partially benefited from high hold (luck factor), MGM market share momentum clearly continues, in our view.”

MGM China’s quarterly net revenue rose about 5 percent year‑on‑year to US$1.14 billion. The parent reported adjusted property earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, amortisation and rent (EBITDAR) of US$264 million, a 7 percent decline from a year earlier. Seaport Research Partners reported that MGM China’s property EBITDA before licence fees increased 0.6 percent year‑on‑year, and on a VIP hold‑adjusted basis that measure rose 4.7 percent; Seaport also noted favourable mass‑market hold.

Texas Capital pointed to higher player‑reinvestment and operating costs as sources of margin pressure, and said increased promotional spending during the quarter produced a slight sequential margin contraction. The brokerage also noted an adjustment to licence fees payable to MGM Resorts that amplified the year‑on‑year margin impact.

Visitor activity showed resilience: Seaport estimated that visitor volumes to MGM Macau and MGM Cotai rose 10 percent year‑on‑year during October’s Golden Week, and it placed MGM’s October GGR share in the low‑17‑percent range, with a forecast of moderation to around 16 percent in 2027 amid competition.

Balance sheet, cash flow and leverage

CreditSights estimated MGM China generated positive free cash flow of US$230 million–US$240 million in the third quarter, helped by lower capital expenditure and improved property EBITDA. The research firm said net leverage fell to 1.36 times trailing 12‑month EBITDA from 1.44 times at the end of June, and expected free cash flow to remain positive in the fourth quarter.

MGM Osaka progress and funding plan

MGM Resorts provided an update on the Japan integrated resort. Chief executive and president Bill Hornbuckle said the JPY1.51‑trillion (US$9.56‑billion) MGM Osaka was approximately 11 percent complete and “remained on schedule and on budget” for a 2030 opening.

“remained on schedule and on budget,” said Bill Hornbuckle during MGM Resorts’ third‑quarter call.

Chief financial officer Jonathan Halkyard said the company had spent about JPY114 billion on the project to date and expected to contribute a further JPY150 billion to JPY160 billion — roughly US$1 billion — in each of 2027 and 2028, completing its funding commitments.

JP Morgan, Seaport Research Partners and CBRE Equity Research all flagged the Japan project as a source of longer‑term value; JP Morgan noted the opening sits beyond the investment horizon for many public‑equity investors, and Seaport currently assigns no value to MGM Osaka in its MGM Resorts valuation. CBRE included MGM Osaka among the group’s substantial long‑term growth sources alongside the company’s digital businesses.

Analyst commentary also referenced the failed People Inc acquisition proposal as a background factor prompting renewed focus on operating fundamentals and the longer‑term assets in the portfolio.