Dutch Gambling Tax Increase Fails to Meet Revenue Targets

Recently, the Netherlands' decision to increase its gambling tax did not deliver the projected revenue gains. Initially raised from 30.5% to 34.2% in January 2025, and then to 37.8% in January 2026, the tax hikes were expected to boost revenue by €108 million and €216 million in those years, respectively. However, the actual outcomes were significantly lower, producing only €2 million extra in 2025 and an anticipated €57 million in 2026.

Tax Increases and Unintended Consequences

The anticipated revenue from the tax increases fell short due to various factors. The introduction of new deposit limits and advertising restrictions, paired with the economic aftermath of the Euro 2024, led to a reduced taxable base. Land-based gaming establishments, such as casinos and gaming halls, reported an 11% decline in visits, with many operators attributing this downturn to the increased tax rate.

Prediction Markets During the World Cup

During the World Cup, prediction market activity highlighted DR Congo as the most backed non-winning country, while France, Spain, and Portugal were favored to win. Interestingly, the highest losses in prediction markets were seen in matches that traditional sportsbooks benefited from, showing a divergence in market perceptions.

Emerging Regulations in Ireland

In Ireland, the new licensing framework under the GRAI initiated on 1 July, adjusting the landscape significantly as 89% of online betting remains onshore. However, only 35% of the entire market is onshore due to iGaming operating offshore. Companies such as Pragmatic Solutions are supporting operators through this regulatory shift.

Insights From Africa Summit

iGB L!VE's Africa Summit emerged as a key event, fostering discussions among regulators from Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya. Topics included sustainable taxation and player protection, aimed at establishing a continent-wide Africa Safer Gambling Week. The summit questioned the industry's capacity to oppose high tax rates if some operators manage to avoid them in certain markets.

Impact on European Markets

These changes in tax and regulation emphasize the complexity of gambling markets across Europe. The discrepancy between expected and actual tax revenues in the Netherlands illustrates the potential pitfalls of tax policy. Meanwhile, Ireland's regulatory changes and discussions in Africa highlight the global scale of these considerations.