H2 Gambling Capital: Italy’s online surge offsets retail weakness in 2026

H2 Gambling Capital has revised its 2026 outlook for Italy after nine months of data showing a split market: total regulated gross gambling revenue (GGR) for 2026 is now forecast at €22.5bn, up 2.2%, with the vast majority of growth coming from online channels. Online casino posted its best September on record and nine-month online gross win reached €2.7bn, a 15% increase on the same period in 2025.

Online regime passes its first test

The figures cover the first full year under the online licensing framework introduced by Legislative Decree 41/2024. Last November more than 300 domains were consolidated into 52 concessions held by 46 operators, each concession bought for €7m and valid for a nine-year term. Several established brands, including Betway and Unibet, chose not to continue under the new regime.

A new self-exclusion system launched on 1 February, allowing players to exclude themselves from individual products or from all gambling for periods between seven days and indefinitely. Concerns that fewer licences, higher fees and tighter player protection would slow growth or push players offshore have not materialised to date. H2 reports online casino growth has been double-digit in every month of 2026 and expects online casino to reach €3.72bn for the full year, up 15%. Poker is on course for €195m and bingo €75m, both around 7% growth.

Online channelisation has strengthened slightly; H2’s model shows the onshore share of online betting and gaming edging up to 90.5% in 2026, from 90.2% in 2025. Italy is noted as one of a small group of markets where channelisation is moving in the right direction.

Sports betting volatility: turnover rising, margin compressing

Sports betting produced mixed results through the first nine months. January posted a record with gross win of almost €330m, but results swung in punters’ favour thereafter. August was the extreme: turnover rose 4% to €1.44bn while margin collapsed to 7%, down from 18% a year earlier, and gross win fell 60%.

After nine months sports betting gross win stood at €1.9bn, down 4% year-on-year. Online sports betting is broadly flat at €1.22bn, with the shortfall concentrated in retail, down 9% to €682m. H2 has cut its 2026 onshore sports betting forecast to €3.47bn, an increase of about 1%, and now expects online sports betting to grow 2% in 2026 rather than the 7% previously modelled.

Turnover growth amid swinging margins leads H2 to conclude that players have not left the market; bookmakers have simply encountered a run of unfavourable results.

Retail environment remains uncertain

Land-based channels are in decline without a clear policy roadmap from Rome. Gaming machines remain the single largest product but are shrinking: first-quarter gross win fell 4%, and H2 forecasts €7.57bn for the full year, down 3%. Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) figures align with the market data: gaming tax revenue fell 6.3% to €3.64bn in the first half of 2026, with machine receipts down 7.3%.

Policy development stalled in early August when the prime minister’s office rejected a draft decree intended to reorganise land-based gambling after two years of regional negotiations, primarily over minimum-distance rules. The enabling mandate for that reform expired on 29 August. Betting, bingo and gaming machine concessions are due to expire on 31 December; the MEF is reported to be considering a three-year extension to 31 December 2029 to raise €400m–€500m for the 2027 budget. Such an extension would provide continuity for operators without delivering the modernisation the retail network requires.

Advertising policy remains unsettled. Calls to unwind the 2018 Dignity Decree ban on gambling advertising and sponsorship resurfaced after Italy failed to qualify for the World Cup, while an opposition bill tabled in July seeks to tighten the ban further. H2’s working assumption is that operators should plan for the status quo.

Forecast to 2031

H2 projects total Italian GGR will reach €27.3bn by 2031, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.4% from 2026. Onshore online betting and gaming is forecast to grow from €5.98bn in 2026 to €9.19bn in 2031, a 9.0% annual rate, and to account for roughly three-quarters of the market’s growth. Online’s share of total GGR is expected to rise from 29.6% to 37.9%.

Offshore activity is forecast to grow more slowly, from €627m to €812m, so the onshore share of online activity is modelled to edge up to 91.9%. Land-based gaming, including machines, is projected to fall from €8.16bn to €7.90bn over the period.

Awards and measurement methodology

The operator performance award at the EGR Italy Awards 2026 uses H2’s tracking rather than a judging panel or entry form. H2 measured every operator across online casino, sports betting and poker over the 12 months from August 2025 to July 2026 against the prior year. Operators were assessed on market share gained, growth relative to product markets, consistency in month-on-month share gains, and scale. The winner will be announced at the awards ceremony on 20 October 2026.

Josh Hodgson, who joined H2 Gambling Capital in 2015 as a data analyst and progressed to chief operating officer over 11 years, oversees H2’s coverage of more than 150 markets worldwide and drives the firm’s data and regulatory intelligence development.

For operators and observers focused on online performance, the near-term picture is clear: online has been the growth engine in 2026 while retail waits on political decisions from Rome. For more on market categories, see H2’s casino coverage in context and how the landscape affects regulation and events in Italy in the coming year. /casino /regulation /events