Kalshi Projects Annie Andrews to Win South Carolina Senate Race
Market prices Andrews at 99% after trading moved sharply between July and November 2026
Key Takeaways
- Kalshi priced Annie Andrews' chance of winning the South Carolina Senate race at 99% on Nov 3, 2026.
- Andrews' market probability rose from 39% at poll close to 99% in the projection.
- The projected result would be the first Democratic Senate win in South Carolina since 1998.
- Senator Lindsey Graham died on July 11, 2026; Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham, who won an August 25, 2026 runoff.
Kalshi projects Annie Andrews (D) will win the 2026 South Carolina Senate race, with traders pricing her chances at 99% on the platform on Nov 3, 2026, up from 39% when polls closed. The projected result would flip a Republican-held seat, marking the first Democratic Senate win in South Carolina since 1998 and leaving Democrats one net pickup short of a Senate majority.
How the Kalshi market moved
Kalshi's South Carolina Senate market shifted dramatically between July and November 2026. After Senator Lindsey Graham's death on July 11, 2026, the market placed Republicans at 85%. Andrews rose to 99% by the time Kalshi published its projection, while her probability had been 39% at the close of polling. The platform cautioned that projections do not imply official race calls or market resolution. See Kalshi's coverage in news.
Candidate and timeline details
Senator Lindsey Graham died on 11 July 2026 after winning the June 2026 primary. Governor Henry McMaster appointed his sister, Darline Graham, who then defeated Representative Ralph Norman in an August 25, 2026 runoff to secure the Republican place on the general-election ballot. Republicans remained factional after the runoff; Norman declined to campaign for Darline Graham, and Donald Trump made three campaign visits to the state to rally for her. Either nominee would be the first woman elected to the Senate from South Carolina.
Polling versus market
Public polls were notably closer than Kalshi's market pricing. A New York Times/Siena poll showed the race tied at 48%, and Kalshi's polling average had Darline Graham up by about 1.5 percentage points.
"These projections do not imply market resolution or that races have been called," Kalshi noted.
Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and warned users that trading event contracts involves significant risk and jurisdictional restrictions.
Frequently Asked Questions
When did Kalshi project Annie Andrews would win the South Carolina Senate race?
Kalshi projected Annie Andrews' win on 3 November 2026, with traders pricing her at 99% on the platform. The market probability rose from 39% when polls closed to 99% at the projection.
What event shifted the market in July 2026?
Senator Lindsey Graham's death on 11 July 2026 moved the market; Republicans were priced at 85% immediately after his death. Governor Henry McMaster then appointed his sister, Darline Graham, to replace him on the ballot.
How did polling compare with Kalshi's market pricing?
Polls were much closer than the market: a New York Times/Siena poll had the race tied at 48%, while Kalshi's own polling average showed Darline Graham up by about 1.5 percentage points.
Did the Republican primary process affect the general election campaign?
Yes. Darline Graham beat Representative Ralph Norman in an August 25, 2026 runoff, but Republicans remained split after the runoff, with Norman declining to campaign for Graham and Donald Trump visiting the state three times to rally for her.
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About the author
Tessa Coleman
Betting Markets Correspondent
Tessa Coleman covers betting products and markets — sportsbook launches, odds and trading technology, and the fast-growing prediction-market space from regulated exchanges to event contracts. The stories lead with the product or the ruling, name the operators and platforms precisely, and translate trading jargon into what bettors can actually do. When a book reworks its pricing or a prediction market wins a license fight, Tessa Coleman explains the mechanics and the stakes.
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