Nevis launches prediction market licence at €18,000, below its iGaming fee

Nevis has introduced a dedicated Nevis Prediction Market License for B2C operators and B2B technology providers, set at a one‑time fee of €18,000 and an annual renewal of €18,000, the Nevis Online Gaming Authority announced on 2 November 2026. The framework was introduced on 30 October and sits separately from NOGA's existing iGaming licence, which carries a €28,000 fee.

What NOGA announced

The Nevis Online Gaming Authority (NOGA) published the prediction market framework in a release dated 2 November 2026 and on its application page. The licence covers event‑based markets on sports, financial and economic indicators, political and electoral events, entertainment, weather and climate, and cryptocurrencies and digital assets. Permitted market structures include binary, multi‑outcome, pari‑mutuel and market‑maker formats, all subject to approval by the authority.

Nuri Katz, NOGA's chief executive, said the aim was "to provide greater clarity for businesses entering this sector" while keeping market integrity and participant protection central. The release adds that authorisation remains subject to the laws where licensees offer services, and names no applicant.

Licence conditions and operational requirements

The published licence conditions bar markets on death, assassination, terrorism and an ongoing criminal proceeding, and allow NOGA to designate additional prohibited categories. Licensees must segregate customer funds tied to open positions and run surveillance systems capable of detecting wash trading and self‑matching. The conditions require position limits per player and per market and set duties to police conflicts of interest among staff, market creators and affiliates.

Resolution methods and any oracle arrangements must be approved at application and cannot change without notice. Player identification plus a utility bill is required before any payout and once aggregate deposits reach US$10,000. Applicants must be Nevis companies with an independent compliance officer, a local reporting officer and one of three approved dispute‑resolution providers.

The requirements document asks applicants to provide three‑year financial projections, a liquidity plan and an independent test certificate for any in‑house matching engine. On capital, the conditions state only that licensees must meet financial ratios that NOGA will notify in writing; the published documents contain no absolute capital figure and show no gaming tax rate.

Fees, administration and legal basis

NOGA's fees page lists a one‑time licence fee of €18,000 for a B2C or B2B prediction market licence and an €18,000 annual renewal fee. By comparison, the authority's iGaming licence is priced at €28,000. The site identifies Apex Capital Partners as the management company that operates the NOGA portal and says NGA Management Limited of Gibraltar processes fees; cryptocurrency payments are accepted.

The regulatory basis for the authority is the Nevis Online Gaming Ordinance, No. 2 of 2025, passed on 29 April 2025 after Premier Mark Brantley moved the bill, and on regulations made by the Minister of Finance in June 2025. The prediction market release cites no separate or amended statutory instrument for this category and the 2025 regulations address gaming licences more broadly.

Restricted countries and market access

Licensees must geo‑block residents of "Restricted Countries" and the conditions require those jurisdictions to be blocked by the operator's controls. The prediction market requirements document leaves the list of jurisdictions to block blank and refers operators to their "own due diligence obligations and applicable legal requirements." NOGA's gaming list, established by the 2025 regulations and published on the authority's site, names nine jurisdictions: the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, France, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria and Saint Kitts and Nevis itself. That list also references FATF blacklists and sanctioned jurisdictions.

If the gaming list is the intended reference, the new licence would exclude major markets, including the US and several EU states where domestic regulators have already taken action against prediction platforms. NOGA's release concedes that authorisation remains subject to local laws in the jurisdictions where a licensee offers services.

Market context and remaining questions

No applicant has been named. The launch follows market activity such as Hacksaw operating B2B prediction markets under a Malta gaming licence, and comes amid legal and regulatory pressure in other jurisdictions, including the Commodity Futures Trading Commission suing the State of Utah to block state enforcement. NOGA describes the new licence as providing clarity for businesses and payment providers, but the authority has not published the specific restricted‑countries list to apply to prediction market operators.

The Nevis requirements address core operational risks of prediction markets—insider trading, manipulation, disputed resolution and commingled funds—while the surrounding documentation retains standard gaming terminology and limited problem‑gambling measures. Beyond a required responsible trading policy, the documents do not mandate deposit limits or a formal self‑exclusion framework.

Until NOGA names any licensee and clarifies which restricted list governs access, the Nevis Prediction Market License is a regulatory rulebook that defines technical and compliance expectations but does not yet establish the markets it will permit.

"to provide greater clarity for businesses entering this sector," said Nuri Katz, NOGA's chief executive.