Spain tells prediction markets they must hold Spanish gambling licences

Spain's Dirección General de Ordenación del Juego (DGOJ) told prediction market platforms on 30 October 2026 that any product qualifying as gambling under Law 13/2011 must be operated under a Spanish licence. Mikel Arana, Director General of the DGOJ, set out the regulator's position at MERGE Madrid 2026 and confirmed the authority continues to block access from Spain to unauthorised services; the precautionary blocks on Polymarket and Kalshi, opened in May, remain in place with no public ruling.

Regulator frames position by product mechanics, not labels

Arana presented the DGOJ stance during a MERGE Madrid 2026 panel on prediction markets and regulation. He said the deciding factor is how a product works: the DGOJ will assess whether an offering meets the legal definition of gambling under Law 13/2011 regardless of how a platform markets itself. Platforms whose contracts meet that test must hold the corresponding Spanish licence before serving Spanish customers.

The DGOJ made clear it has not created a new licensing category for prediction markets, announced no legislative amendments at the event and offered no alternative route to authorisation. The regulator therefore continues to treat activity that fits existing betting definitions as falling under the current law.

Cross-bet classification and the pathway for licensed operators

Spanish law already includes a cross-bet model that regulators have used to describe prediction market activity: an operator intermediates wagers between third parties and earns a commission rather than taking the opposite side of a bet. The DGOJ indicated this category can encompass much of the prediction-style activity where the platform acts solely as an intermediary. A Gaming in Spain webinar earlier in 2026 highlighted that prediction-style betting on sport could sit within current rules provided the operator intermediates only.

That classification gives licensed operators a clear legal pathway. The DGOJ also said it will continue to restrict access from Spain to unauthorised services — the same precautionary measure it applied when it targeted Kalshi and Polymarket in May.

The status of enforcement and pending cases

Proceedings against Polymarket and Kalshi were opened in May 2026 and the DGOJ ordered both websites blocked in Spain as a precaution. The ministry initially expected the process to take three to four months; that window has now passed. Arana's remarks on 30 October provided no update on either case and did not confirm a final decision. Both companies therefore remain blocked in Spain and there is still no formal ruling on whether their products constitute unlicensed gambling under Spanish law.

Europe and beyond: a fragmented regulatory picture

Regulatory approaches across Europe and beyond are diverging. The Malta Gaming Authority is developing dedicated rules for the sector and has approved Hacksaw's licence extension for a B2B prediction markets platform. Gibraltar has actively courted prediction market businesses, and Nevis released its framework earlier this week. Conversely, Italy has blocked Polymarket, and France's gambling regulator previously required Polymarket to stop French users accessing the platform.

Enforcement is also active outside Europe. A New Taipei court authorised website blocks on Kalshi in Taiwan, and in the United States Utah prosecutors filed 14 criminal counts against Kalshi and its co-founders.

Markets, investors and product design

Investor appetite remains strong despite enforcement actions. Kalshi disclosed a fresh $1bn funding round to Reuters on 29 October 2026, taking its valuation to $40bn; a Coatue-led round in May 2026 of the same nominal size had valued it at $22bn. Three days before the October raise, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi announced a strategic collaboration under which Kalshi will list contracts settled against official S&P index values and S&P DJI will work on new indices built from Kalshi event contract data.

Tarek Mansour, co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, said:

"Kalshi’s aspiration is to be the next great financial exchange."

Kalshi and Polymarket have approached the London Stock Exchange and Euronext seeking support for recognising prediction markets within financial services. Index and data licensing deals could give these platforms a foothold in international finance, but such agreements do not grant permission to offer trading in regulated markets like Spain. Madrid's position remains that the product design determines whether a DGOJ licence is required.

Practical considerations for operators eyeing Spain

For any operator considering the Spanish market, product design is now the critical first question. A contract that satisfies the gambling definition in Law 13/2011 requires a DGOJ licence. Contracts that fall outside that definition face a different and currently undefined path to market access.

Existing licensed operators also face a compliance environment with new obligations. The DGOJ has introduced a €700 daily cross-operator deposit cap that operators must comply with by March 2027. An unlicensed rival offering similar products would not carry those obligations.

The public consultation on reforming Law 13/2011 closed on 22 June 2026, and the DGOJ is expected to prepare a draft bill for Congress and the Senate. That reform process is the obvious vehicle for a dedicated framework, but Arana's remarks underline that until legislation or a new licensing route appears, the current legal test remains the operative standard.

Regulation remains the primary determinant for market access, while platforms and investors continue to pursue financial partnerships and index licensing to expand their international options.