Kenya regulator to carve out a licence category for prediction markets

The Gambling Regulatory Authority plans to create a dedicated licence category for prediction‑market platforms as part of its 2026/27 licensing cycle, the regulator's director general Peter Karimi told Business Daily on 18 October 2026. The GRA has not published a start date, application requirements or a list of permitted event types.

What the GRA has proposed

The GRA is considering a specific prediction‑market licence after several companies reportedly approached the authority. Karimi described the proposal in an interview published on 18 October 2026. Three platforms — 5050 Markets, EvenMarket and Spreadhit — were reported on 18 October as operating without a Kenyan licence while Kenyan users were participating in their markets.

Prediction markets allow participants to buy or trade contracts on the outcomes of future events, including sporting contests, elections and economic indicators. The GRA treats these platforms as a form of gambling because participants stake money on outcomes that have not yet occurred. Karimi said:

"The interpretation of the GRA is that gambling involves primarily games of chance and prediction by definition is about outcomes that are in the future, and therefore no skill is required." — Peter Karimi, director general, Gambling Regulatory Authority

Legal route under Kenyan law

The Gambling Control Act 2025 lists online bookmaker, online lottery and online casino licences and allows additional licence categories to be added by regulation. The Act therefore provides the GRA with a mechanism to create a prediction‑market licence without new primary legislation. Existing online gambling rules already address control systems, payments, age verification, advertising and regulator access to transaction data; the GRA indicated those rules could be adapted if prediction markets become a regulated product.

The Gambling Control Act 2025 has been subject to legal challenges. On 21 October 2026 the High Court referred three constitutional petitions challenging the Act and the 2026 regulations to the Principal Judge for directions on which court should hear them; that referral was procedural and did not decide the merits. Separately, in a case over licence fees and capital requirements the High Court allowed the GRA to continue processing licence applications and permitted the disputed fees to be collected for licensing purposes, but ordered that the fees could not be enforced while the challenge is pending.

Open regulatory questions

The GRA said several technical and policy questions remain unresolved. Cross‑border access is a concern because some prediction platforms serve multiple countries from a single base. Karimi noted some platforms operate only in the United States, while others use cryptocurrency for onboarding and withdrawals. The regulator has not said how markets on sport, elections and economic indicators will be treated, and Karimi warned that "we have to prepare for the fact that marketing knows no bounds."

Regional comparison and next steps

Liberia has already introduced a dedicated framework for prediction markets. Under Liberia's approach operators require either a dedicated licence or a partnership approved by the National Lottery Authority; the licence carries a $80,000 fee and a minimum of $500,000 in paid‑up capital, and contracts on the death of a named person, criminal activity and Liberian elections are prohibited.

For now the GRA has not issued licensing requirements or a commencement date for a prediction‑market category. Players wishing to transact with operators holding a GRA licence should consult guidance on licensed operators in Kenya. Last updated: 29 October 2026.