Seaport: Macau third-quarter industry EBITDA likely down 10.6% year-on-year
Seaport projects Q3 2026 EBITDA fall and slightly narrower margin amid softer GGR
Key Takeaways
- Seaport Research Partners estimates Macau industry EBITDA fell 10.6% year-on-year in Q3 2026.
- Industry-wide EBITDA margin for July–September is likely down nearly 180 basis points year-on-year.
- Macau's Q3 GGR was slightly above MOP60.21 billion (US$7.44 billion), down 3.8% year-on-year.
- Seaport expects Q4 2026 GGR to fall 0.7% year-on-year with EBITDA down 3.4%.
Seaport Research Partners estimates Macau's casino industry EBITDA fell by 10.6 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, the firm's senior analyst Vitaly Umansky said in a memo issued on Monday. The note also projects the industry-wide EBITDA margin for July–September 2026 to be down nearly 180 basis points year-on-year, though possibly up 50 basis points quarter-on-quarter.
Seaport's quarter preview and operator outlook
Seaport's memo previewed third-quarter results for Macau's six concessionaires and highlighted relative share movements. The firm said Sands China Ltd and Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd were likely to have produced the strongest year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter share gains for the period, followed by MGM China Holdings Ltd. Seaport expected Wynn Macau Ltd, Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd, and SJM Holdings Ltd to show sequential and year-on-year share losses for July–September.
"Market share gains, operational expense control, and optimised player reinvestment and commission strategies are now critically important differentiators (in a temporarily slower-growth market)," Vitaly Umansky wrote.
Seaport further estimated that only Galaxy Entertainment would report year-on-year property EBITDA gains in the quarter, with MGM China largely flat and the remaining operators showing declines.
GGR and segment detail
Macau's full third-quarter gross gaming revenue was slightly above MOP60.21 billion (US$7.44 billion), a 1.3 percent decline sequentially from MOP61.03 billion in Q2 and a 3.8 percent drop year-on-year. The Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported mass-market GGR, including slots, at nearly MOP43.31 billion, down 5.2 percent on the prior-year period; mass play accounted for 71.9 percent of all casino GGR in the quarter versus 73.0 percent in Q3 2025. The regulator's data can be consulted via the city's regulatory section on our site (/regulation).
Seaport added a view on nearby markets, saying the Singapore casino sector probably showed "considerable softness" in Q3 as well, partly from the same demand weakness affecting Macau and weaker high-end play. Singapore's duopoly comprises Marina Bay Sands, run by a unit of Las Vegas Sands Corp (parent of Sands China), and Resorts World Sentosa, run by Genting Singapore Ltd.
Seaport projected the fourth quarter to face continued headwinds but not as severe as Q3, estimating Q4 GGR down 0.7 percent year-on-year and EBITDA dropping 3.4 percent year-on-year.
Frequently Asked Questions
What decline in EBITDA did Seaport forecast for Macau in Q3 2026?
Seaport forecast an industry EBITDA decline of 10.6 percent year-on-year for Macau in the third quarter of 2026. The projection appears in a memo from senior analyst Vitaly Umansky issued on Monday.
How much did Macau's third-quarter gross gaming revenue total?
Macau's full third-quarter gross gaming revenue was slightly above MOP60.21 billion, equivalent to US$7.44 billion. That figure was down 1.3 percent sequentially from MOP61.03 billion in Q2 and down 3.8 percent year-on-year.
Which operators were cited as gaining share in Q3 2026?
Seaport said Sands China Ltd and Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd likely recorded the strongest year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter share gains in Q3 2026, with MGM China Holdings Ltd next in line. Seaport expected Wynn Macau Ltd, Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd, and SJM Holdings Ltd to record share losses.
What did Seaport say about the EBITDA margin and Q4 outlook?
Seaport projected the industry-wide EBITDA margin for July–September 2026 to decline nearly 180 basis points year-on-year while possibly improving 50 basis points quarter-on-quarter. For Q4 2026 the firm estimated GGR would fall 0.7 percent year-on-year and EBITDA would drop 3.4 percent.
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Oliver Grant
Industry Technology Correspondent
Oliver Grant covers the technology and business machinery of iGaming — platform and data deals, AI and compliance tooling, affiliate and marketing shifts, and the quarterly numbers behind them. The reports lead with the announcement, name the vendors and figures exactly as published, and separate genuine capability from press-release promise. When a supplier ships a new engine or a regulator tightens ad rules, Oliver Grant explains what actually changes for the companies involved.
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