JP Morgan flags China tax risk against Marina Bay Sands’ Q3 EBITDA forecast
Bank forecasts US$680m Q3 EBITDA and warns of fallout from China’s 20% offshore trust tax.
Key Takeaways
- JP Morgan forecasts Marina Bay Sands’ Q3 EBITDA at US$680 million, below the Street’s US$693 million consensus.
- China introduced a 20% tax on offshore trust income in July, with unpaid taxes due for declaration by October 22.
- JP Morgan forecasts Las Vegas Sands’ Q3 2026 Macau EBITDA at US$529 million, 6% below the Street.
- Third-quarter 2026 Macau GGR finished down 4% year-on-year and was around 85% of 2019 levels.
JP Morgan Securities LLC said there is "some question" over Marina Bay Sands' third-quarter earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) because of fallout from China clamping down on offshore tax collections. The bank published a US$680-million forecast for Marina Bay Sands’ third-quarter EBITDA, below the Street consensus of US$693 million; Marina Bay Sands reported second-quarter adjusted property EBITDA of US$689 million. Las Vegas Sands Corp, the resort’s parent, is due to report third-quarter results on Wednesday after market close.
JP Morgan’s Singapore caution and the China tax link
JP Morgan named China’s recent measures on offshore trusts as the specific risk to Singapore operations. In July, the Chinese government introduced a 20-percent tax on offshore trust income, and unpaid taxes must be declared by Thursday, October 22. JP Morgan analysts Daniel Politzer, Samuel Nielsen and Michael Hirsh said in a Tuesday lookahead on third-quarter earnings season:
"For Las Vegas Sands, positioning feels heavily negative on Macau (our third-quarter 2026 EBITDA of US$529 million is 6 percent below the Street's), but there's also some question on Singapore regarding fallout from China clamping down on offshore tax collections." — JP Morgan Securities LLC
The bank's US$529-million Q3 2026 EBITDA forecast for Las Vegas Sands in Macau is 6 percent below the Street, the note said.
Macau numbers, GGR trends and operator shares
JP Morgan reviewed third-quarter gross gaming revenue (GGR) data from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ). The bank said third-quarter 2026 GGR finished down 4 percent year-on-year and was around 85 percent of 2019 levels. JP Morgan noted Macau GGR was circa 83 percent of pre-pandemic level in Q2 2026 and circa 87 percent in Q1 2026.
JP Morgan added that per DICJ, VIP GGR was flat year-on-year in Q3 2026 while mass/slot GGR was down 5 percent year-on-year. The bank said hopes for a post-World Cup rebound faded during the quarter and "concerns grew regarding China's crackdown on offshore wealth and trusts, and more broadly the macro environment there."
Operator EBITDA and market-share estimates
The bank set its third-quarter Macau EBITDA for Wynn Macau Ltd at US$255 million, about 10 percent below the Street's US$282 million, citing possible "share losses" and "unfavourable hold." JP Morgan estimated sequential market-share moves for the three months to September 30 as follows:
Sands China Ltd: up 170 basis points quarter-on-quarter
Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd: up 160 basis points sequentially
MGM China Holdings Ltd: up 20 basis points quarter-on-quarter
SJM Holdings Ltd: down 80 basis points from Q2
Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd: down 130 basis points sequentially
Wynn Macau Ltd: down 140 basis points sequentially
JP Morgan summed the backdrop as weakening sentiment for Macau operators amid subdued GGR and the new Chinese offshore tax measures.
Frequently Asked Questions
What Q3 EBITDA did JP Morgan forecast for Marina Bay Sands?
JP Morgan forecast Marina Bay Sands’ third-quarter EBITDA at US$680 million. The bank said this figure is below the Street consensus of US$693 million and noted the property's Q2 adjusted EBITDA was US$689 million.
How does China’s new tax affect Marina Bay Sands and Macau operators?
China introduced a 20-percent tax on offshore trust income in July and requires unpaid taxes to be declared by Thursday, October 22. JP Morgan said the clampdown on offshore tax collections is a potential headwind for Singapore and has contributed to growing concerns about Macau operators' revenue.
What did JP Morgan say about Macau’s Q3 2026 GGR performance?
JP Morgan reported third-quarter 2026 GGR finished down 4 percent year-on-year and was around 85 percent of 2019 levels. The bank added that VIP GGR was flat year-on-year while mass/slot GGR was down 5 percent year-on-year, citing DICJ data.
Which operators did JP Morgan expect to gain or lose market share in Q3?
JP Morgan estimated Sands China Ltd up 170 basis points and Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd up 160 basis points sequentially; MGM China Holdings Ltd up 20 basis points. It expected SJM Holdings Ltd down 80 basis points, Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd down 130 basis points, and Wynn Macau Ltd down 140 basis points.
Tags
About the author
Oliver Grant
Industry Technology Correspondent
Oliver Grant covers the technology and business machinery of iGaming — platform and data deals, AI and compliance tooling, affiliate and marketing shifts, and the quarterly numbers behind them. The reports lead with the announcement, name the vendors and figures exactly as published, and separate genuine capability from press-release promise. When a supplier ships a new engine or a regulator tightens ad rules, Oliver Grant explains what actually changes for the companies involved.
More from Oliver Grant
