Lula’s election win puts Brazil’s betting ban before the Supreme Court

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth non-consecutive term as President of Brazil with 51.79% of valid votes in Sunday’s runoff, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro who took 48.21%, according to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Lula’s victory leaves in place the federal decree that suspended licensed betting activity; the 85 federal authorisations that had been granted to 82 companies and covered 188 brands expired on 25 October. Justice Luiz Fux of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) is now the rapporteur on three direct actions of unconstitutionality challenging the measure and is expected to issue a ruling, with no date announced.

Election outcome and immediate legal context

Lula closed a second-round deficit to secure the presidency; the final margin exceeded four million votes. In the first round on 4 October, Flávio Bolsonaro led with 47.03% and Lula had 45.16%, making this the first runoff comeback since Brazil returned to direct presidential elections in 1989.

Lula signed the betting ban into effect nine days before the first-round vote and reiterated his position three days before the runoff. During a YouTube live broadcast with federal deputy André Janones, Lula said:

"The bets will not return. Anyone who wants to make money should go to work."
— Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, President of Brazil

The executive measure remains active while multiple constitutional challenges move through the judiciary and Congress.

The Supreme Federal Court docket and possible rulings

Justice Luiz Fux is rapporteur for three direct actions of unconstitutionality: ADI 8024 from Anseja, ADI 8027 from the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL), and ADI 8028 from the mayors’ association ANPV. Broadcasters’ body Abert has requested suspension of the decree, and 16 football clubs, including Cruzeiro and Fluminense, have also asked the STF to freeze the measure pending congressional review.

On 2 October, Fux gave the Attorney General’s Office (AGU) 72 hours to respond; the AGU asked him to reject the challenges and keep the ban. UOL reported that Fux then held the file, saying a pre-runoff ruling might be read as taking sides. He is now expected to rule, though no hearing date has been published.

Analysts outline three possible STF outcomes: deny injunctions, suspend the measure entirely, or restore sports betting while keeping online casino activity banned. Any individual decision would still require confirmation by the full Supreme Court.

Market impact and licence status

The federal authorisations granted for five-year licences expired on 25 October. Those 85 authorisations were granted to 82 companies and covered 188 brands; operators paid R$30 million per authorisation when the regulated market opened in January 2025. Fees for the expired authorisations will not be refunded. A ruling with retroactive effect could treat the authorisations as valid throughout the suspension period.

Operators have pursued remedies in lower federal courts: 19 actions were filed by operators and the ANJL. The only favourable decision was a partial injunction for Stake in São Paulo, but the president of the TRF3 regional court suspended that injunction at the federal government’s request.

International operators have reported commercial impacts. Flutter Brazil generated $74 million in revenue in H1 2026. Allwyn has said Betano is preparing legal action to protect its five-year licence, and Evolution has temporarily closed its Brazil studio.

Economic and employment estimates

The National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL) reports more than 3,500 jobs lost since the measure was issued and expects that figure to approach 6,000 by year-end. A study by LCA Consultores for the Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR) estimates lost tax revenue of R$58 billion to R$73 billion between 2027 and 2030. Before the ban, online casino activity accounted for around 70% of betting companies’ revenue and the offshore market supplied more than 40% of volumes.

The congressional timetable and political arithmetic

In Brasília, the joint committee designated on 30 September has not been installed and has no chair or rapporteur, according to the congressional record. Lawmakers filed 99 amendments before the 13 October deadline; Senate President Davi Alcolumbre had pushed that deadline back because of the elections.

Under the congressional timetable, the measure enters an urgency regime on 9 November, which locks the agenda of the house reviewing it. The committee’s first 60 days run out on 23 November, followed by an automatic 60-day extension. That timeline could mean the matter is decided by a new legislature.

Election results handed the Liberal Party (PL) 121 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, the largest single-party bloc since 1990. Poder360 counts 276 right-leaning deputies from 2027, against 124 on the left and 113 in the centre. The PL is on course for 28 of the Senate’s 81 seats.

Lula addressed concerns about working with a hostile Congress in his victory speech in São Paulo: "I didn’t choose Congress. The people chose it, and it is with this Congress that I will vote, work and get things approved." Oliver Stuenkel, professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, said:

"He is likely to be a lame duck from the start."
— Oliver Stuenkel, Getulio Vargas Foundation

What happens next

Justice Luiz Fux’s ruling is the immediate legal milestone. If the STF revives sports betting only, the online casino segment would remain closed and the regulated market would still be materially constrained. If the ban survives litigation, the legislative fight will centre on whether former licensees must reapply for authorisations and which verticals—sports betting or online casino—may be permitted. The timeline for congressional consideration and the composition of the next legislature will shape those decisions.

Regulators will watch the STF docket closely. Industry statements and pending litigation are likely to follow any Fux ruling; meanwhile, the market remains suspended and operators face ongoing legal and commercial exposure. Additional coverage of operator responses and legislative developments will appear in our news section and in industry briefings on sports betting.