DraftKings’ DKeX climbs to third by notional volume four months after launch

DraftKings’ in-house exchange DKeX reached third place among US prediction market operators by weekly notional volume for the week ended October 18, recording $1.04 billion and lifting its market share to 3.57% from 2.33% the week ended September 26. CEO Jason Robins made the claim on October 22 at the NEXTPredict Summit in New York, and third-party trading data from Aldrin Research supports the ranking.

How DKeX reached the podium

Jason Robins, CEO and co-founder at DraftKings, discussed DKeX during a fireside chat hosted by Contessa Brewer of CNBC on October 22. He said:

“We only launched the DraftKings exchange a few months ago, and we’re already the clear No. 3, which is great, and we continue to gain share.” — Jason Robins

Aldrin Research shows DKeX produced $1.04 billion in notional volume for the week ended October 18. That figure put DraftKings behind Kalshi in first and Polymarket in second, but ahead of a congested chasing pack during the sector’s first $11 billion weekend. Aldrin also reported DKeX set a single-day record that Sunday with $316 million in notional volume, a rise of 42% on the previous Sunday; on September 13 the same daily figure was $139.8 million.

Product mix and measurement distinctions

Notional volume counts contracts at their full payout value rather than the cash traders actually commit. Using a slightly later window, Aldrin data for October 17 to 23 put DKeX on $1.24 billion in notional volume in Earnings+More newsletter reporting, leaving it ahead of Novig at $802 million and Crypto.com at $573 million.

Switching to dollar volume — the actual cash paid by traders — flips the ranking behind the top two. For the same period the newsletter reported Novig led on $217 million, with DKeX and Crypto.com both at $179 million. By that measure, Novig generated roughly 21% more dollar volume than DKeX, even though DKeX produced about 55% more notional volume than Novig in the newsletter’s calculations.

DraftKings’ product mix explains much of the gap. Combination contracts made up 78% of DKeX’s notional volume on October 18 but only 31% of its dollar volume. Aldrin data shows the money customers actually spent on DKeX held between $40 million and $42 million across the last three Sundays.

Market availability and the sportsbook-state restriction

DraftKings Predictions is live in 48 states, with Maine and New Hampshire the exceptions. The full menu of event contracts, including sports, is available in 18 states, among them California, Florida and Texas. In states where DraftKings operates a licensed sportsbook — for example Colorado, New York and Pennsylvania — sports contracts are not listed on DKeX.

Robins said the company deliberately keeps sports event contracts out of every market where it books traditional sports wagers. He added:

“We’ve done that with a much more limited state footprint than all of the others that we’re talking about competing with.” — Jason Robins

Kalshi and Polymarket do not apply the same sportsbook-state restriction. Robins conceded DKeX would carry more weight if it could list sports contracts in a market the size of New York, but he said the trade-off was clear: listing sports in sportsbook states would have placed DraftKings’ licenses at risk.

DraftKings markets itself as available across all 50 states under its “super app” strategy, which aggregates the sportsbook, Predictions and free-to-play contests; product availability therefore varies by state. Robins credited DraftKings’ sportsbook experience for the exchange’s rapid traction, saying the company understands what customers want.

Legal and regulatory context

Legal challenges to sports event contracts are moving toward the US Supreme Court, and regulators continue to act at state level. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has formally separated state-licensed sportsbook wagers from its swap definition. Ohio has ordered 10 platforms to stop offering sports contracts.

Louisiana recently granted DraftKings only a conditional license extension running to February 2027, while regulators review its use of AI and shareholder suitability. Robins said DraftKings does not target problem gamblers and refers suspected cases to a specialist team. He declined to comment extensively on the Seminole Tribe lawsuit in Florida, noting it was interesting DraftKings had been singled out given other prediction markets operate in the state.

Robins also outlined the company’s position on market uncertainty and investor sentiment. DraftKings shares have fallen more than 40% this year. He argued the company is in a “win-win spot” whatever the Supreme Court decides, partly because non-sports trading — notably growth in financial contracts — could persist even if courts remove sports event contracts.

Where volume may lead scrutiny

The notional-volume spotlight has drawn attention from investors and regulators alike. DKeX’s rapid ascent is measurable in the data and visible in daily records, but the difference between notional and dollar volume shows how product mix reshapes apparent market position. Aldrin and the Earnings+More newsletter provide the trading windows cited here; industry participants and regulators will watch how the legal and state-level rulings affect listings and market share going forward.